Future land value speculation is not the traditional role of the assessor.

Assessor proves prophet of doom

The Maricopa County Assessor's Office has produced the cloud of doom opponents of the proposed Santan power plant wanted. In doing so, the office did its part to help fulfill a prophecy of financial harm to homeowners.

Future land value speculation is not the traditional role of the assessor, who every year determines current property values and issues a tax bill accordingly. But County Assessor Kevin Ross predicts home values around the Santan will be affected negatively by as much as 15 percent.

It was exactly the kind of statement neighbors opposing the Santan wanted. They are determined to either stop expansion or to force the Salt River Project into a condition that would create a $300 million escrow account they could tap into if home values decline.

The expansion should go forward. And an escrow account as proposed by Santan opponents would establish a dangerous precedent of making governments and utilities guarantee future home values near public works projects.

The precedent established by the Assessor's Office is dangerous enough.

The office last month issued a review of two studies of residential land values around the Gilbert power plant site at Val Vista Drive and Warner Road. The studies were commissioned by the Salt River Project in response to neighborhood concerns.

The review challenges the studies findings that there is no evidence in sales activity that the existing plant or the proposed expansion of the plant has been a negative factor. The PricewaterhouseCoopers study concluded there was nothing currently in the market to suggest conditions will change when the expansion is completed.

Ross concludes from data his office has collected over the years on the effects of property values of other major land impacts - such as railways, major streets and power transmission lines - that the Santan expansion project will have a 5 to 15 percent negative impact on home values. Homes within a two-mile radius will not appreciate as much as similar homes not close to a power plant, he said.

Nothing in the Assessor's Office review shows how the 5 to 15 percent range was determined. "Common sense," Ross said, suggests a bigger plant with three 150-foot stacks will have a negative impact.

But home buyers will consider more than stacks in their purchasing decisions. People now are buying new, expensive homes next to transmission lines in Gilbert. Home values in the south Tempe neighborhood near the SRP's Kyrene power plant, which construction for expansion is under way, had the city's sharpest gain in median home sales prices.

No one really knows what's going to happen around the Santan until it happens. The future for those Gilbert neighborhoods around the Santan depends on how well the town and the schools maintain the standards residents have bought into, the SRP's commitment to neighborhood and site improvements and the market.

No one should expect East Valley sales to be as hot five years from now as they are today. But who's to say it won't?

Not the Maricopa County Assessor's Office.

The Arizona Republic editorials represent the position of the newspaper, whose editorial board consists of Keven Willey, Phil Boas, Jennifer Dokes, Doug MacEachern, Joel Nilsson, O. Ricardo Pimentel, Robert Robb, Laurie Roberts, Linda Valdez, Ken Western and Steve Benson.